Based on the discussion and satellite imagery, the western Caribbean is favored this week:

GULF OF MEXICO
A broad surface trough extends from west-central Florida to the central Yucatan peninsula. Abundant tropical moisture and divergence aloft is enhancing the development of scattered showers and thunderstorms across the SE Gulf, especially over and just north of the Yucatan Channel. For the forecast, the surface trough over the southeast and south- central Gulf accompanied by scattered showers and thunderstorms will drift slowly into the western Gulf through mid
week and dissipate. Meanwhile, weak high pressure will persist over the north-central and northeast Gulf.

CARIBBEAN SEA
Abundant tropical moisture and a favorable upper level pattern continue to sustain scattered moderate to isolated strong convection north of 15N between 75W and 85W