During the coming week, a stalling front draped across the Gulf of Mexico may combine with a Central American Gyre and/or Tropical Cyclones from the Eastern Pacific to develop one or more October Tropical or Sub-Tropical Cyclones in the Gulf of Mexico over the next ten days.

Global models increasingly are in unison on this unfolding setup, but not in regards to the one or two systems' organization and intensity.

The first potential looks to be more possible early to mid week in the western Gulf, to be followed by another potential later in the week or next weekend. Ensemble-implied probability of at least one named storm in this region over the course of the next ten days is about 65%, and given the proximity to land and likely land impact of something, whether tropical or not, we are starting a lounge on this modeled cyclone at this time.

Very few model runs have suggested anything more than a mid-range named storm, as forecast conditions for development are not very conducive, but this can always change, especially if/when there is a bona fide disturbance to track.

Model-favored impact locations run the entire gamut from eastern Mexico to the Florida Straits, with wide-reaching impacts if the system/s remain hybrid or even frontal.

Should an Invest or Invests be assigned in this region out of this soup, we will update the title and possibly have two lounges, accordingly.

Thread retitled SW Gulf Low - Ciel