The NHC official forecast for Sean weakens the already struggling system to a remnant low by Monday afternoon (Oct 16th).

We are starting this Lounge in part because of this official forecast, as well as model guidance suggesting that a hobbled Sean or open wave makes it further west and has an opportunity to encounter what may become a more favorable environment in or near the Caribbean sometime next week. A plurality of global model ensembles suggest that a region bounded by just east of the Caribbean to the east to the Bay of Campeche to the west should be conducive for tropical cyclone development and/or intensification during the back half of October.

The other reason for this Lounge is out of an abundance of caution and interest given that we simply do not have much to work with in the way of any analog seasons with a strong El NiÃ±o in the Pacific alongside a highly anomalously warm Atlantic.

Some 18z Sean runs from the Hurricane models:

HWRF End of run: Sean is located near 15N 52.5W as a 1011mb open wave at 0z Oct 17
HMON End of run: Sean is located near 16.75N 49.9W as a 1010mb open wave at 0z Oct 17
HAFS-A End of run: Sean is located near 17N 54W as a 1005mb sharp wave with possibly a small closed low at 0z Oct 17
HAFS-B End of run: Sean is located near 18.5N 52.25W as an open wave at 0z Oct 17