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This 0z GFS is certainly an interesting run. On the other hand, the GFS has been wishcasting development in this region ad infinitum this season and is batting zero. Just six hours later, the 06z drops the development in the Carib, but develops the futurecane northeast of there and sends a weaker version out to sea, suggesting that development in the W ATL is very possible (all models suggest this), but exact intensity and location are far from certain. Taking a look at two Globals that have performed better overall than the GFS this season, their 0z runs are as follows 0Z ECMWF - Nothing until the very end of the run on Nov 4th, which advertises a broad area of low pressure in the extreme southern Caribbean on 0z Nov 4 0z GEM - Advertises a cross-over from EPAC's 92E (a current system with NHC 70% odds of development, and itself is actually partially old TD 21 that just made landfall in Nicaragua). This run of the GEM (Canadian model) has 92E (then a tropical cyclone) cross over Central America and land in the extreme western Caribbean just offshore of Belize on Oct 30, barely hanging on as a TD at best, before washing out over or just offshore of the Yucatan at the end of run 0z Nov 4. |