The gfs always has some big system hitting florida this season at the end of the run.. it was showing the 28th then the 29th, 30th and so on weeks ago it and during the beginning of the season, with every wave voting through as a major.. it's just hard to look past day 3 anymore..I been thinking it's because it sees a pattern and naturally maths out that the current sheared patter. Won't last forever and should turn around, but it does not.
Every day the new input goes in and it resets. It sees the pattern remaining each run then mates ot out that it won't last and conditions for development return, but then it doesent again.
So each run it keeps kicking the can out down the road.
During non elnino season when conditions actually do get better it's a great logic, then by each run the good conditions do unfold its pretty accurate because the math actually mathed out, and a strong positove feed back makes it accurate, but this season there is a strong negative feed back, it sees what it paints what it's math logic think should happen , but its not accounting for the persistent jet, the elnino or whatever the pattern is not turning out each day like the math says so now we're seeing the major on the 13th of November tommorow it will be the 14th and so on...