| cieldumort |
| (Moderator) |
| Mon Jun 10 2024 09:27 PM |
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2024 Forecast and Modeling Updates
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As the features that tend to "lock in" a season's character become more evident as time progresses, many professional agencies update their preseason forecasts in June all the way through even October. In this thread we will highlight preseason forecasts and their updates, post updates to known predictors as they come in, and add any of our own thoughts.
This is an open thread to registered members with relevant information and opinions (backed up with reasoning please) to post.
| cieldumort |
| (Moderator) |
| Tue Jun 11 2024 07:28 PM |
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Re: 2024 Forecast and Modeling Updates
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Credit to: SeasonalHurricanePredictions.org.
Quote:
The Seasonal Hurricane Predictions platform provides free access to seasonal forecasts issued by a number of universities, private sector entities and government agencies around the world for the upcoming hurricane season in the North Atlantic.
The platform allows forecasters to make these predictions freely available to the wider public, compare the predictions with real-time hurricane activity, and obtain the best estimate of upcoming hurricane activity.
This platform has been co-developed by the Barcelona Supercomputing Center (BSC) and the Colorado State University (CSU), with support from the global (re)insurer AXA XL.
The following represent 2024 Season Forecasts issued through early June.
Named Storms
Hurricanes
Major Hurricanes
| cieldumort |
| (Moderator) |
| Thu Jun 27 2024 05:19 AM |
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Re: 2024 Forecast and Modeling Updates
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Now that we are closing out the final week of the first month of the 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season, here is a comparison of the Ocean Heat Content (OHC) for yesterday, June 26 2024, with June 26, 2020.
2020 was the most active Atlantic season on record in terms of total systems with 31 Depressions (Tied with 2005 for most), 30 Storms (Record high), 14 Hurricanes and 7 Majors (Tied with 2005 for most for Majors).
It is important to note that SSTs alone do not dictate the stats for a hurricane season, but high SSTs do strongly support hyperactive years.
OHC maps credit: University of Miami Rosenstiel School of Marine, Atmospheric, and Earth Science
