Many operational models and plenty of their ensemble members continue to forecast the development of a tropical cyclone in the western Gulf during the week of June 17th. Now that this time frame has drawn closer, we are starting to be able to make out some of the details a little better, and not just with the models, but with our own eyes.

Conditions for development are dramatically rising in not only the western Gulf, but also the northwestern Caribbean. There is now even an outside chance of development as soon as later this weekend and also as potentially as far east as the NW Carib. Even without a bona fide TC, the odds of a significant tropical heavy weather maker is already close to guaranteed. Invest 90L was born and began seriously affecting Florida ahead of model forecasts. This may also be the case with what is likely to become our next Invest, (91L).

As of 2pm EDT Friday June 14, NHC is now assigning 50% odds of development within 7 days in the western Gulf, 0% within 48 hours. It seems almost certain to see both numbers go up by Sunday morning, and possibly by a lot.

Here are a few model forecasts from 12z and 06z today

14/12z Runs
ECMWF - Closed 1002mb tropical low (possibly a TD) by Tuesday morning (06/18). 999mb low just east of Tampico, MX Thursday morning.

GFS - 998mb tropical low (possibly closed/TD) by midday Tuesday (06/18) in the southern Bay of Campeche. 996-998mb likely closed tropical low (TD/TS) preparing to make landfall in southwestern Bay of Campeche.

GDPS - No real development in NW Carib or SW Gulf from this, but does recognize an enhanced area of spin and disturbed weather.

ICON - Elongated 1006mb low by Sunday morning (06/16) in the southern Bay of Campeche. No TC genesis but weather to MX and TX.

14/06 Runs
ECMWF AIFS (Artificial Intelligence Integrated Forecasting System) - 1005mb tropical low off the coast of southern Belize Sunday night. Tracks NW across the Yucatan. 1002mb closed low (probable TD/TS) Tuesday morning in the western Gulf. Comes ashore around Corpus Christi, TX Wednesday evening as a possible TD.

None of these runs advertise an alarming wind threat, but the rainfall could be copious and a great many details have yet to be teased out. Having recon missions into this region will be especially informative.