Today, Thursday June 27, kicks off the first day of a more complete set of model runs for 95L. Several coming in hot.

Disclaimer: we do not yet have a lot of good, reliable, granular data on what is going on, in, under and around 95L.

What we do have is some trustworthy satellite, microwave and commercial flight/ship/buoy data in the region that is being processed to greater or lesser degrees. These suggest a strong wave with some embedded vorts already exists. And we also have the background state in the Tropical Atlantic. This is very well known to be exceptionally conducive for the time of year and more closely resembles a typical August/September state than late June.

0z 06/27/24 Vort-centric Runs
GFS: Closed low/probable TD by overnight this coming Friday in the vicinity of 9N 44W. Hurricane by this coming Sunday night while about 275m SE of Barbados. Crosses the Windwards as a Cat 1/2 on Monday. Begins pulling NW and heads towards Jamaica, passing to the south of Jamaica as a stong TS next Wednesday. Crossing the Yucatan as a TS next Friday and enters the Bay of Campeche next Saturday, July 6th.

HAFS-A: Wave with some embedded vorts, at times producing tropical storm force winds until possible TC genesis around Friday/Saturday. Definitive TS by Saturday night while about 500m SE of Barbados. Passes just south of Barbados Sunday evening as a strong TS. Passes between Grenada and St. Vincent as a borderline hurricane Sunday night into predawn Monday. Tracks NW into the Caribbean as a solid Cat 1 Monday night (end of run).

HAFS-B: Wave with some embedded vorts, at times producing tropical storm force winds until possible TC genesis around Friday morning. Definitive TS by Friday afternoon, while about 740m SE of Barbados. Center passes just S of Barbados predawn Monday as a hurricane. Strong Cat 1 passing directly over St. Vincent midday Monday. Tracking NW, Cat 2 by Monday night in the Caribbean (end of run).

HMON: Wave/pos TD and then likely TS by Saturday night while about 940m SE of Barbados. Center passes about 60m S of Barbados Monday evening as a hurricane. Passes between Grenada and St. Vincent and enters the eastern Caribbean as a Cat 2 late Monday night (end of run)

HWRF: Probable TS Friday morning while about 1,450m SE of Barbados. Hurricane by Saturday night about 875m SE of Barbados. RFQ direct hit on Barbados Monday afternoon as a possible Major. Crosses St. Vincent as a Major Monday evening, entering eastern Caribbean as a Cat 3/4 overnight Monday.