cieldumort
(Moderator)
Sun Jun 30 2024 02:52 AM
Re: Beryl Lounge

Longer range, model track forecasts for Beryl continue a trend that bends poleward towards the US, mostly Texas, for now. The way they arrive at this looks very plausible.

In the immediate to near term, Beryl continues to RI and may quite possibly make a run for Cat 5 within the next 72 hours. An intensifying hurricane and already Major as it passes through the Windwards, is almost certain. Given that Beryl is a smaller-size tropical cyclone with an increasingly tight inner core, recon data will prove invaluable in determining how dire the situation may be for one or more islands.

Flying a bit blind without any recon missions so far, but my updated lifetime max intensity probs for Beryl are easy enough to put out there with what is already known:

Cat 1 (Presently) 2%
Cat 2: 6%
Cat 3: 17%
Cat 4: 38%
Cat 5: 37%



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