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Models today are definitely more excited about its potential. Given the large size of the dry tropical wave and abundant islands along its current forecast trajectory, very slow to at best modest organization and strengthening throughout most if not all of its track seems the most probable outcome. Perhaps eventually a hurricane if everything comes together just right. Current NHC odds of 40% for TC genesis within 7 days looks reasonable, which is also 60% odds of no genesis. Will be interesting to see how it is or isn't coming together by mid-week. |