Still a 50% chance for development, the wave has the two sections, but the eastern one will likely become dominant, the models this afternoon have been showing a stalling system either over the Gulf or South Carolina in the 12z euro. All weak, there are a few ensembles with stronger members however. The UKMet also shows a weak South Florida landfall. Anything south of the islands into Mexico is extremely unlikely, but out to sea is still possible. The SAL is likely to be much less a factor in a few weeks.

Most likely a rainmaker for somewhere, Bahamas, or Southeast. Strong system is unlikely though. 2024 is not 2013, either, since SAL looks to be dropping off on schedule.