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18z models aren't a big change, except for the 18z gfs (which is a big outlier, even to its ensembles) which shows a cat 3/4 hurricane approaching Louisiana on the morning of Saturday August 10th. The Icon is still east of florida, as is most of the euro ensembles, so that's still the most likely scenario, weak and bringing rain to Florida this Sunday.
Based on latest satellite illustrating the wave's steady 15-20 kt westward motion in the moderately strong easterly trades on the underbelly of the mid-Atlantic high, I think the western extension of the ridge will be strong enough to keep a weaker system below 25N as it nears the Florida peninsula. While the outlier GFS may be correct on the track, I can't (at this time) buy into the latest GFS call for a strengthening slow moving TS over the northeastern Gulf becoming a fairly strong hurricane impacting the northern Gulf coast somewhere between NOLA and P-COLA.
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Re: Central Atlantic Area Lounge