Would be easy to see this Invest tagged today.

The robust tropical wave is already producing numerous strong showers and thunderstorms, and while the largest and tallest islands are along its track ahead, modeling keeps trending towards the GFS, which had been an outlier, favoring a future in the northeastern Gulf of Mexico. This would be one of the scenarios that would most favor the opportunity for a hurricane to form, and potentially a Major as shown in the very bullish GFS run above, provided potential future Debby gets enough time over the Gulf waters.

I'd very much like to see recon begin flying the environment within and ahead of the wave to help models get a better handle on this. It is concerning that the once outlier GFS seems to be leading the pack.

2AM TWO NHC odds of tropical cyclogenesis are 10% within 48 hours and still only 60% within 7 days. This may prove conservative on the 7 days (now more into the 5 day range), and justifiably, PTC watches and warnings could be issued over the weekend without a formed system.