Quote:
Steering currents favor a track that would take this system, developed or not, towards the Greater Antilles and Bahamas, then depending on how well formed it is as well as how much high pressure to its north is built in, may ultimately pose a threat to the CONUS and/or Bermuda and/or Canada.
Just like with Debby's early pre-depression formation when consensus was east of Florida, right now I don't have confidence in current modeling suggesting recurve east of Florida. My "gut feeling" is that the Atlantic high that has been dominant this season will persist, keeping the slow to develop system on a W/WNW track (below 20N) for longer. Once the system becomes Ernesto, the later turn NW around the western extension of the ridge will potentially threaten the Florida peninsula (like with Debby), then possibly the panhandle or Big Bend region (the 3rd time in less than a year!).
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Re: Next MDR Wave