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Setup here prefers the east of US Track if the system strengthens early, if not you get something like today's 12Z GFS where it slips under then landfalls around Wilmington NC on Aug 18/19th. Canadian is much stronger, and stays east of Bermuda and recurves before it reaches the Caribbean islands. Basically it's a case for the "weaker west" "stronger east" setup. Icon is in between those two, and the 0z Euro gets close to Bermuda but stays east of the US mainland (after going over the USVI and PR) but then curves back toward MA/ME at the end of the run. |