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0z icon tonight is fairly far right, it only clips the northern leewards and then recurves well before the Bahamas/Turks and Caicos ending close to Bermuda 0z GFS is a little left/south and gets into Hispaniola on this run, which is an uhoh for weaker/west. It does get into the turks and caicos and southeastern bahamas then manages to stay offshore of the US (And avoid Bermuda) and go out to sea. The 0z Canadian goes out to sea before it reaches the Leeward islands and never directly affects land. The 0z Euro goes through the leewards, over puerto Rico then turns north, avoids Bermuda at the last minute and goes out to sea. The 6z GFS is stronger than 0z, but is a similar track to it, out to sea, although may get all the way to the Azores on the trip back east, a sign it may be a very long lived system. Troughing seems strong enough to keep the system away from the mainland US, (at least the southeast and mid-Atlantic, but it'll likely recurve enough to avoid north of there also) |