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Just like with Debby's early pre-depression formation when consensus was east of Florida, right now I don't have confidence in current modeling suggesting recurve east of Florida. My "gut feeling" is that the Atlantic high that has been dominant this season will persist, keeping the slow to develop system on a W/WNW track (below 20N) for longer. Once the system becomes Ernesto, the later turn NW around the western extension of the ridge will potentially threaten the Florida peninsula (like with Debby), then possibly the panhandle or Big Bend region (the 3rd time in less than a year!).

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I have a hard time believing a more easterly path is likely with the strong Atlantic high in place and in my opinion will move this system further west before it recurves to the north. A path similar to Debby seems to me to be more plausible.

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