There are some signs that the approaching wave is becoming a bit sharper. It remains to be seen how it fares once it crosses into the Bay of Campeche, but early on at least, shear could be low and of course SSTs are exceptional.

Without going much into still murky details, here is a list of various 0z and 18z model runs with notation as to whether they develop ("YES") something in the SW Gulf regardless of how (as noted in the original post, methods may include all on this wave's own, interaction with old 90L, interaction with the front, interactions with old 90L and the front, or old 90L itself), or if they don't ("NO"), or inconclusive (INC)

Time/Model/Develops?

0z ECMWF: NO
0z GFS: YES
0z ICON: YES
0z GDPS: YES
0z UKMET: YES
0z NAM: YES
0z RDPS: YES
0z GEFS: INC
0z SREF: NO

18z EPS: NO
18z ECMWF-AIFS: YES

Models that do develop a TC in the Bay of Campeche largely expect it to track north and threaten Texas and/or Louisiana next week.