The 12z hurricane model runs did alright with the present location and structure of what might already be a hurricane Francine. New recon has just departed that will be in the cyclone tonight and get an idea for how much it has strengthened. NHC is estimating it to be up to 65 MPH with the 4PM CDT Advisory.

The tropical cyclone now has a solid core, even a nascent eye, and this will make future tracking and forecasts far easier for models and forecasters alike, but the benefit of having recon in the system as often as possible can not be overstated. Taken all together, model runs and forecasts from tonight on should be much more reliable.