Looking ahead at the next couple of weeks, conditions for development and intensification basin-wide appear to be trending better than even during the climatological peak of the season of roughly Sep 1 - Sep 20. One of the features largely responsible for tamping down development odds since early July has been ever-present high amounts of dry dust in the MDR and across much of the basin.This swung back down like a rock during the back half of August, but this favorable condition (for development) also coincided with other players, such as the placement of the MJO, that created a lot of sinking air working to squash any wanna be TC from taking off. That inhibiting combo looks to be changing now.

After recording the second dustiest July since 2002, the Tropical North Atlantic saw a remarkable drop in dust cover starting in mid-August, with the lowest dust concentrations on record over the past month. pic.twitter.com/8ryRNpoDvs
— Michael Lowry (@MichaelRLowry) September 18, 2024