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With the benefit of recon starting to investigate PTC NINE, I've seen just enough to put out my first best guess as to NINE's maximum lifetime intensity. Invest/PTC Only (Presently): 0% Tropical Depression <40 MPH: 0% Tropical Storm 40-45 knots: <1% Tropical Storm 50 knots: <1% Tropical Storm 60 knots: 2% Cat 1 Hurricane: 3% Cat 2 Hurricane: 14% Cat 3 Hurricane: 18% Cat 4 Hurricane: 30% Cat 5 Hurricane: 32% Or looked at another way, about a 3% chance of not becoming a hurricane of any category and about a 97% chance of becoming at least a Cat 1 hurricane. An 80% chance of becoming a Major Hurricane (Cat 3, 4 or 5), and a 62% chance of becoming a high-end Major (Cat 4 or 5). |