Trend among the 12z and 18z runs of the GFS and ECMWF and their ensembles seems to be increasing the possibility of two distinct systems in the Gulf:

1. The lead wave that helps pull up the area of spin down around South America tries to develop, with several ensemble members doing so but almost all of those staying on the weaker side and driving whatever it is (wave/low/TD) into Mexico or south Texas as mostly a breezy rain-maker, and

2. The area of preexisting spin that the lead wave pulls up, with an apparent majority of members of both global models cranking up from TD to strong hurricane, with most of those then driving it into the northern or eastern Gulf (from about Lake Charles, LA to the Everglades National Park, in the 12z and 18z runs).

It is noteworthy that many runs also ramp the Central American Gyre back up and spin out a system once again on the Pacific side, as well. This is a bit messy and can make early modeling very suspect. Overall, ensemble-implied development odds may be about 80% within 10 days from the NW Carib into the Gulf. NHC has bumped up this region to 50% odds within 7 days.