Above: 18z EPS Forecast cyclones as of Oct 9 18z. Credit: Weathermodels.com

12z ECMWF ensemble implied development odds in the Gulf within the next 5 days is virtually 100%, with most of the individual members on the strong to Major side and an impact focus of Florida.

18z ECMWF runs are 100%, and generally even stronger than the 12z runs. Ryan Maue points out that the18z control "was mid 980s, which is what it said for Helene days out."

0z ensemble runs will be coming out overnight, along with the first bids from the hurricane models (HWRF, HAFS, etc).

Based on this afternoon and evening's conventional satellite and microwave images, along with some scantly available ship and buoy reports, nascent TC genesis may already or soon be underway in the Bay of Campeche.