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0z models overall shifted left, but the consensus model TVCN hasn't really changed at all (just time plot points) I suspect the NHC stays the course on the 11PM Track and probably intensity wise too, although it's a good compromise between some of the models like the hurricane ones that show it strengthening a lot more, only to hit wild shear just before landfall and weaken rapidly. Landfall timing is the interesting bit, that could change. |