cieldumort
(Moderator)
Sat Oct 05 2024 11:08 PM
Re: Milton Lounge

It would be nice to have recon before tossing my max lifetime intensity bid in for Milton, but here it goes. Of course, tropical cyclones like Milton are far more than just their maximum sustained wind speed, and I'm a strong proponent of moving away from the Saffir-Simpson scale to something akin to what SPC uses in their graphics for severe thunderstorm/tornado outlooks, which for TCs would include serious impacts such as surge, inland flooding, wind damage and tornadoes, for example.

Max lifetime sustained winds for Milton (my best guess).

40KTS (Present NHC 10PM Advisory) <1%
45-50 KTS: 2%
60 KTS: 3%
65-70 KTS: 5%
75-80 KTS: 6%
85-95 KTS: 7%
100-110 KTS: 17%
115-135 KTS: 28%
140-155 KTS: 22%
160+ KTS: 10%

Or another way of looking at this, I think there is a roughly 95% chance of Milton becoming a hurricane of any intensity, a 77% chance of becoming a Major, a 60% chance of becoming a high-end Major (Cat 4 or 5), and about one-in-three odds of becoming a Cat 5, prior to making landfall on Florida.



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