6z Icon is near Port Charlotte, Euro is near Sarasota, GFS is ST. Pete, Canadian is Ft. Myers. 6z TVCN Shifted a bit south today to Venice (Was St. Pete), the 0z Hurricane Models all come in North of Tampa, (HAFS-A And HMON to Crystal River, HWRF to Reddington Beach, HAFS-B to Homossasa Springs) At or North of Tampa is worse for Tampa Bay onshore surge, but track doesn't really mean much for the other effects. (Note on exit to the Atlantic the the opposite onshore wind surge is left (or north) of the storm)

The southerly models are forecasting a weaker storm, the northern ones a stronger storm. Recon data will help some for the models as the plane should be around there in a hour or two. The current NHC track oiver Tampa and Orlando and exiting into the Atlantic near Cape Canaveral is solid right now based on what's known currently. I'm not convinced Milton will get overly strong, but it's important to watch for it, if it does go stronger than forecast the more northerly tracks seem more likely.