I don’t think I’ve ever seen a NHC forecast that states anything from Cat 1 to Cat 5 is possible due to the interaction with an approaching front. It could transition to extra-tropical just before or after landfall. They note it’s a small storm thus rapid fluctuations are possible. My main concern continues to be surge given the area in the cone. Ft Myers and Tampa are both VERY surge prone due to shape of the coastline. Forward speed will be critical here, a fast mover can’t pile up as much water and the speed factor is another wild card the NHC mentions.