Re. Tampa, there are a lot of members of our reliable models that take the center of Milton directly over or north of Tampa.

Milton keeps tracking a bit to the south of forecast, but this can also work against a south-of-Tampa ultimate landfall, as well. The hurricane could stay stronger for longer and consequently respond better to tugs and shoves that would send it further north (e.g., Tampa or north of there). This might be counterintuitive by just looking at satellite loops, but the science on this potential outcome is sound and very much in the realm of possibilities.

A strike south of Tampa might "just" be a nightmare. A strike directly over or a bit north of Tampa could be unspeakable. The potential damage could rival that of the most infamous landfalling hurricanes.