I've been watching the interaction with the yucatan peninsula and noticed that the UKMET has been holding it's southerly prediction since the beginning. Also noticed this with Charley and Ian. Seems like a lot of the models did not predict a close encounter with land this early. I know the GFS has issues with landmasses ;which probabaly makes predictions in the Gulf especially difficult. At this point, I wish there were chart plots that showed all the models including the Euro, but you take what you get.
My question is since the Euro and UKMET models run twice per day; are the plot changes the result of extrapolation? Is there a human factor where they correct the course based on current trajectory, and then it gets trued up at the next model run? Seems like the GFS (which runs 4 times a day) is digesting more timely data but not able to look at the big picture. This would explain why it has issues with land masses and it tends to bounce around. The recent GFS models are trending way north, and pulling the median path with it. I'm hoping a greater alignment of the models once the storm is back in open water.

Also of note is the shear in the Gulf. Is that what the UKMET is seeing as a strong force keeping the storm south?
Tropical Shear Image