| cieldumort |
| (Moderator) |
| Mon Oct 07 2024 04:20 PM |
|
Re: Milton Lounge
|
Quote:
I've been watching the interaction with the yucatan peninsula and noticed that the UKMET has been holding it's southerly prediction since the beginning. Also noticed this with Charley and Ian. Seems like a lot of the models did not predict a close encounter with land this early. I know the GFS has issues with landmasses ;which probabaly makes predictions in the Gulf especially difficult. At this point, I wish there were chart plots that showed all the models including the Euro, but you take what you get.
My question is since the Euro and UKMET models run twice per day; are the plot changes the result of extrapolation? Is there a human factor where they correct the course based on current trajectory, and then it gets trued up at the next model run? Seems like the GFS (which runs 4 times a day) is digesting more timely data but not able to look at the big picture. This would explain why it has issues with land masses and it tends to bounce around. The recent GFS models are trending way north, and pulling the median path with it. I'm hoping a greater alignment of the models once the storm is back in open water.
EURO runs four times a day. UKMET is generally not a preferred Global as far as TCs in the western Atlantic basin are concerned. It tends to perform very poorly relative to the others. In our part of the world at least, the GFS handles the big picture far better than UKMET.
Plot changes are not a result of extrapolation. Plot changes are a result of highly sophisticated weather modeling interpreted by hurricane experts at NHC and, in other basins, other agencies.
Milton is not over land whatsoever, and is very unlikely to track over the Yucatan.
Ciel