While I have tremendous faith and confidence in the NHC, both the track Milton takes into FL’s west coast and where it crosses the east coast are dependent on two course changes. The first is a change in course toward the NE as Milton approaches the Gulf coast. The second is a slight change more towards the east as it makes landfall. The timing and extent of those moves can significantly affect where Milton makes landfall and where it exits on the Atlantic side.

In 2005 Rita was supposed to track right over our little neighborhood 12 miles inland 72 hours before landfall. While I was stuck in the mass exodus from Houston, the forecast started shifting east ~36 hrs before landfall. It ended up coming ashore ~100 miles east of us.