We stayed in place for Beryl, which hit us with strong Cat 1 winds, from which we had no damage of any kind. Previously we evacuated for Ike, again without any damage. But from both of those let me share a few things learned. Even if you’re secure at the immediate threat from wind and water, you need to be prepared for living in what conditions will be after the storm passes. That includes mobility (roads may be blocked or impassible for several days), power (Ike killed ours for 10 days, Beryl for 2.5), and once able to travel access to fuel and food. When there’s no power in the area broadly stores will be closed meaning no purchases. So do consider what it may be like after the storm has passed, and what you would need access to.

As far as track and cone of uncertainty, it’s a statistical probability that accounts for 2/3rds of storm tracks over the previous five years. You can see the actual numbers and get a good explanation here.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutcone.shtml

The distances cited are from the forecast track, so plus/minus.