Keep in mind that the water in the Bay of Campeche was THE warmest water in the GOM. It hadn't been mined by a storm since early in the season. However, the eastern GOM has been mined by several storms especially Helene just a week or so ago. So that water is warm but nowhere near as hot as what Milton was over the last 2 days!

Also, from the 11am NHC Discussion : "The track guidance
is honed in on a landfall along the west-central coast of Florida
sometime Wednesday night. However, it is critical to remember that
even at 36-48 hours away, NHC's track forecasts can be off by an
average of 60-70 n mi, which means we still can't pinpoint an exact
landfall location, especially if the hurricane wobbles as it
approaches the coast." 60-70 miles at 1.5-2 days is pretty good!