cieldumort
(Moderator)
Tue Oct 08 2024 03:56 PM
Re: Milton Lounge

A lot of 18z guidance is shifting a bit south.

There has been a trend for Milton all along to veer south-of-forecast with intensification phases. The hurricane is very likely now Cat 5 again (awaiting new recon mission to confirm, but easily 160+ MPH based on satellite).

A track further south overall could

Keep it over the Loop Current for longer (Higher octane fuel)
Prevent it from interacting with as much detrimental shear, perhaps by a lot
Have significant implications for which locations get the very worst of the worst
Raise Saffir-Simpson intensity into landfall (Cat 4 and 5 could both be on the table)
Delay extra-tropical transition, resulting in more of a classic hurricane for longer (vs "half-a-cane" look as seen on some models)

There is a system off to Milton's north to northeast ~ frontal with frontal lows ~ this/these could still create some lowering of pressures to Milton's north and northeast, drawing Milton to the north, but more and more so today, that area of disturbed weather is attempting to congeal into a sub-tropical storm off the east coast of Florida (heading east), and this prior source of pull to the north may be easing.



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