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NON-STANDARD MODEL
Today's 18Z Convection Allowing Model HRRR which can be useful for hybridizing TCs is showing the center going right into Tampa Bay about 10-11PM EDT tonight.
The 4pm location from NHC was 64 miles from Egmont Key (entrance to Tampa Bay) at a 43 degree bearing. At 17mph, Milton would be over at ~8pm, so the HRRR is way too slow. Also, the 4pm bearing for Milton was 35 degrees which will take him to St Pete Beach/Treasure Island if he maintains same course.
There is an expected slowing down of Milton's forward speed which is already being seen in most recent recon penetrations and radar images. Whether or not that continues is TBD, but it is about what is anticipated by many models as Milton begins or preps for a turn more to the east.
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Re: Milton Lounge