Gotta hand to the NHC they really nailed this track forecast. I calculated the spread from furthest N to furthest S center line was less then 60 miles, that is a crazy narrow window to focus on given the geographic scale of FL's gulf coast. Track errors favored a more northern solution that didn't verify in the end as Milton's wiggled his way SE. Advisory #5 from 10AM Sunday was basically spot on. Even the very the first advisory for TD#14 was almost perfect for landfall aside from timing (it was 12 hours too early). However (in my non-scientific opinion) in typical NHC fashion they over stated wind speeds using flight level values which never translate to ground level. Data is hard to come by right now so I look forward to seeing the off-season report with official wind speeds. I believe this was closer to a Cat 2 as dry air thankfully weaken Milton. Of course the NHC tends to avoid downgrading storms just before landfall fearing people will ignore "weak" storms.

I believe this storms legacy will be the insane number of strong tornadoes that were produced in central and eastern FL counties. And the so-called "miss" of Tampa Bay... again, despite the majority of plots putting Sarasota in the bull's eye. However we were only 20 to 30 miles from a completely different outcome.

None of this is to take away from the damage Milton caused and those lives that been sadly effected, just the perspective of someone who tracks these things with a high level of interest.