Invest 94L is approaching the southeastern Bahamas and looking yet again a bit more organized this late Friday night. Several models, including the ECMWF, have been insistent on this becoming a TC by Sunday, and it is in a favorable environment of light shear and sufficient moisture to pull this off.

Intensity-wise, given its relatively small size and favorable environment, if a TC has indeed already formed or soon does form (a little difficult to discern without much in the way of reporting stations out over this part of the ocean - and also given that all recon missions scheduled for it on Friday got scrubbed), 94L has potential to surprise on the upside.

NHC development odds as of 8PM EDT Friday Oct 18 were 30% within 48 hours, which will probably be going up in short order.