Based on GFS having consistency over multiple runs for several days, I believe that Florida's central east coast a hundred miles or so north and south of the Cape will be in for a week-long period of strong (possibly gale force) onshore wind starting around Halloween and lasting until Election Day. Given the slow movement of the low (potential TC) coming up from the south into the central or northern Bahamas, SST's and increasing shear will probably limit strengthening to a hurricane, though a strong tropical/hybrid storm not too far off the east coast of Florida is quite possible.
This set-up of a late season low coming up from the south, being pinned down by strong high pressure to the north reminds is reminiscent of the Thanksgiving Day coastal wind/erosion event in 1984 that ravaged the central Florida east coast for 4 days.
|