Too early to call with much confidence. Very dependent on how much intensification occurs while in the Caribbean Sea, and the strong/persistent ridge that has held over the east coast (for days on end) finally progressing east out into the Atlantic later in the week. Slower organization in the Caribbean would mean a weaker TC entering the Gulf on a NW then WNW track, staying further off Florida's west coast.

PTC18's current slow northward drift allows for more time to organize and strengthen over the exceptionally warm/deep Caribbean. A period of rapid intensification would then be possible before impacting Cuba. This would also allow more time for the ridge north of the system to weaken/retreat, with a more northerly track closer to Florida as a stronger hurricane.

Given the current forecast uncertainty beyond several days, the Florida panhandle and the peninsula should pay attention to each update early this week until the forecast falls into place.