Days 4/5 forecastsr Raphael as a weakening TS. Potential landfall somewhere along the northern Gulf coast, spanning 4 states from tip of the FL panhandle to central LA. From the NHC discussion:
When the system reaches the Gulf of Mexico, the model solutions diverge, which appears to be due to differences in the steering patterns and vertical depth of the storm. The NHC track forecast is largely an update of the previous one and remains close to the various consensus models. However, it should be noted that the track forecast over the Gulf of Mexico is of low confidence. the track forecast over the Gulf of Mexico is of low confidence.