More models and their ensembles are now latching on to the idea of a broad area of low pressure forming this week in the central to western Caribbean, ramping up a TC over the course of the next several days. A few runs have been very aggressive, as conditions for Rapid Intensification still exist off and on in this region.

A series of waves approaching from the east are likely to interact with the general gyre setup, and it seems likely at least one of them should help trigger this anticipated Tropical Cyclone Genesis. Depending on just where genesis occurs, should it occur, will have substantial influence on any future track and intensity, but the general consensus is for either

Weaker > west to northwest (crossing central America into the east pac):

W into central America, possibly as a strong storm
NW towards the western gulf, being battled by inhospitable conditions much the same was as Rafael, but perhaps still a brief HUR then storm

Stronger > north to northeast (threatening Cuba and perhaps south Florida and the Bahamas):

N to NE with RI in the northern Caribbean as it passes over or near Cuba, possibly to track into the Florida Straits

Recon will probably be tasked this week and thus models will fine tune and most likely come into better agreement.