Caribbean Gyre with three distinct lobes. Invest 99L most prominent (Circled in red). Base map credit: Zoom Earth

First light this Wednesday morning paints a bit of a complex picture for the future of our developing Invest. Invest 99L itself may be recentering a hair to the southeast of where Best currently has it. What was likely the rounding tip of one of the triggering tropical waves has begun closing off itself, and then just to the north of Honduras and east of Belize is a formerly naked, well-defined and closed off low.

These three competing lobes all now orbiting within a gyre could somewhat hamper the formation of Sara and modify her future track in ways not yet very well modeled. In fact, while not mentioned by NHC, there is probably a chance that the well-defined and now somewhat convectively active closed low east of Belize acquires sufficient organization that it becomes a TC itself, provided it stays over water.

Recon has been tasked and will start providing invaluable data. At present, there is a lot of spread among the models and their ensembles.