| IsoFlame |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Mon May 05 2025 02:14 PM |
|
Re: 2025 Atlantic Season Guesses
|
Quote:
The Atlantic is cooler than average this year by 2 degrees, but that won't affect the number of tropical systems much if at all. Last year we only got one system from that region. The rest was from the Gulf and the Caribbean which I think is going to happen this year too. Prediction: 20 named storms.
While 20 may be a little above what I'll say (thinking 16-17 ATM), I'm in TOTAL AGREEMENT WITH with western Caribbean and GOMEX being the where the bulk of TC's ultimately develop. That's not to say that the Atlantic won't sow some impressive long-lived waves that search for favorable environmental conditions for tropical cyclogenesis. Check out today's 12z GFS run that suggests around May 20 a strong pre-season TC will come up from the south, cross Cuba into the Bahamas:
GFS
Last several runs have been consistent with this thought. We'll see...