It's been an honor and privilege being part of our community since 2006, and a frequent visitor/lurker before that.

My preseason best guesses for the 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season are as follows:

18 Depressions 17 Storms 9 Hurricanes 5 Majors 195 ACE
Most likely range: 16-20 Depressions, 15-20 Storms, 8-10 Hurricanes, 4-6 Majors and 175-215 ACE

It appears to me that there is greater risk of an upside surprise than downside surprise to these preseason best guesses. Regardless, it also seems more likely than not that landfalls will occur close to if not on the CONUS, with probably a 75% or greater chance of at least one CONUS hurricane landfall this year and at least 60% or greater chance of at least one Major CONUS landfall this year.

My initial bid for 2025: 17 Storms, 9 Hurricanes and 5 Majors