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The gfs system has shifted again to the west and is no longer in the Gulf, and its now showing that energy moving into the east Pacifc, another potential phantom is behind it. If you are curious why there wasn't too much talk about the earlier GFS runs, this is why since the early season bias in this region is notorious and why you look look for more than a single models support. weak indications on the euro ensembles, non withstanding. .
What to look for ijn the GFS bias runs is 1, no or very little other model support, 2. tendency to push the timeframe back every day. And this was no exception here. (GFS is showing another West Caribbean system at the tail end of the 6z run this morning -- around June 16th)
My take too. Still, there was some consistency (location/timing) in GFS runs early on, but other models didn't give it a nod so you are spot on with not biting as the GFS gradually pushed out the time frame and changed the track in the Gulf, then added another spin up at the tail end of the run. Hope the sometimes early harbinger model can get back on track as the season progresses.
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Re: General Long Range Lounge