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The average looking year continues, east pacific higher activity early, which is typical, (unlike the last few years). I don't think anything will develop in the BoC, window is vastly closing on that, and the NHC rightfully has not called out the area. IT won't stop Mexico from getting crazy rainfall from what tries to pull into the mainland, though Overall pattern matches the average years, which means probably no named systems until late July, and a more active August than the last couple years. Just really watching for the wave train to show signs of kicking in in about a month. If anything does pop up before then, it'll be short lived systems. But again I think it's going to be a more typical year for storms than we've had in the last few. EPac activity in June is closer to the climatological norms this year, and so is the Atlantic. If it follows the trend of other years similar to this, activity in late July and earlier parts of August are more likely than the past few years have been. The main part of the season likely will be active, but the water temperatures being warmer further north has a two pronged impact, sure more fuel, but also more shear likely. So it tends to balance out. |