MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Tue Jun 17 2025 01:46 PM
Re: 94E Crossover Watch

94E is now Tropical Storm Erick, and forecast to be a category 2 at landfall just east of Acapulco, Mexico Thursday morning. This is close to the same area where Otis hit in 2023, which went from a Tropical Storm to category 5 hurricane in less than 24 hours.

Nhc discussion on intensity:

The environment appears ideal for rapid strengthening. Vertical
shear is expected to be very low, with the cyclone moving over
waters of around 29 degrees Celsius and within a moist
mid-level environment of around 80 percent relative humidity.
As a result of these conditions, Rapid intensification (RI) indices
are rather high, particular for the 36- and 48-hour periods. The
NHC intensity forecast explicitly shows RI occurring while Erick
approaches the coast of southern Mexico, with a 48-hour intensity
just below major hurricane strength. Despite this increase in the
forecast intensity, there are still a few models (including the
normally skillful HCCA aid) that show Erick reaching major
hurricane strength, and additional upward adjustments in the
forecast could be required later today.



Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources. 
CFHC's main servers are currently located at Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well. Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center