MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Tue Jun 17 2025 01:46 PM
Re: 94E Crossover Watch

94E is now Tropical Storm Erick, and forecast to be a category 2 at landfall just east of Acapulco, Mexico Thursday morning. This is close to the same area where Otis hit in 2023, which went from a Tropical Storm to category 5 hurricane in less than 24 hours.

Nhc discussion on intensity:

The environment appears ideal for rapid strengthening. Vertical
shear is expected to be very low, with the cyclone moving over
waters of around 29 degrees Celsius and within a moist
mid-level environment of around 80 percent relative humidity.
As a result of these conditions, Rapid intensification (RI) indices
are rather high, particular for the 36- and 48-hour periods. The
NHC intensity forecast explicitly shows RI occurring while Erick
approaches the coast of southern Mexico, with a 48-hour intensity
just below major hurricane strength. Despite this increase in the
forecast intensity, there are still a few models (including the
normally skillful HCCA aid) that show Erick reaching major
hurricane strength, and additional upward adjustments in the
forecast could be required later today.