|
|
|||||||
94E is now Tropical Storm Erick, and forecast to be a category 2 at landfall just east of Acapulco, Mexico Thursday morning. This is close to the same area where Otis hit in 2023, which went from a Tropical Storm to category 5 hurricane in less than 24 hours. Nhc discussion on intensity: The environment appears ideal for rapid strengthening. Vertical shear is expected to be very low, with the cyclone moving over waters of around 29 degrees Celsius and within a moist mid-level environment of around 80 percent relative humidity. As a result of these conditions, Rapid intensification (RI) indices are rather high, particular for the 36- and 48-hour periods. The NHC intensity forecast explicitly shows RI occurring while Erick approaches the coast of southern Mexico, with a 48-hour intensity just below major hurricane strength. Despite this increase in the forecast intensity, there are still a few models (including the normally skillful HCCA aid) that show Erick reaching major hurricane strength, and additional upward adjustments in the forecast could be required later today. |