18z gfs went a bit wild, but doesn't have much support elsewhere

This is very unlikely, however it does show the heat content in that part of the Gulf (which is very hot right now)

12z Euro keeps it weak and moves it off the southeast (icon does also)
Euro ensembles are mostly off the southeast coast, where GFS ensembles have it more in the northwast Gulf. It's looking more likely there may be something to watch for on the holiday weekend. Note, before this it means it's likely to be HEAVY ranfall over much of Central and North FLorida later in the week, regardless of development.