Recent model runs including various Globals and CAMs out to 06z Tuesday the 15th as to whether or not they have developed at least a fairly well defined, closed surface circulation in association with this disturbance.

ECMWF NO
ECMWF AI YES
GDPS YES
GFS NO
GFS AI YES
HRRR YES
ICON YES
NAM 12k NO
NAM 3k NO
RAP YES
RDPS YES
RRFS NO
UKMET NO

YES: 7
NO: 6

All runs that have developed a closed and fairly well defined surface circulation by 7-15-06z have done so with the system still east of Florida. Of the model runs above to have not developed this system into a closed and fairly well defined low by this time, most were close to closing off.

In summary, models suggest that it is more likely than not that an Invest will be tagged within the next 36 hours while this feature is still east of Florida, and that as (likely 93L or 94L) crosses the state from east to west, tropical cyclone conditions could occur.