The 18z gfs is similar to the 12z with no development, although the area is visible on the 850 layer. Icon shows a bit further east. So still depends on how much develops before and immediately after Florida.
I still think the globals don't have a great handle on the main area yet.

KMLB (Melbourne) Radar is down unexpectedly this evening. (Jacksonville was already down for planned maintenance)

FTMMLB

MESSAGE DATE: SUN JUL 13 2025 5:35 PM EDT

THE MELBOURNE WSR-88D (KMLB) REMAINS DOWN DUE TO AN UNANTICIPATED
DISRUPTION. AT THIS TIME THERE IS NO ESTIMATION FOR WHEN IT WILL
RETURN TO SERVICE. PARTS ARE ON ORDER. THANK YOU FOR YOUR PATIE

The 18z UKMET is showing development in the Gulf, but it only goes out 66 hours on the 18z runs. 12z didn't show development.